Superforecasting

The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone. * Economist *A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read … Highly recommended. * Independent *This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it. – Daniel KahnemanFull of excellent advice – it is the best thing I have read on predictions … Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity. * The Times *Philip Tetlock has transformed the science of prediction. * Spectator *The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. * Wall Street Journal *Fascinating and breezily written. * Sunday Times *Superforecasting is a fascinating book. * Daily Mail *Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading. * Management Today *The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even epistemology – how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its message. – Steven Pinker

Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment- How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble- Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk- The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.

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