Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

“…this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides.” — Publisher’s Weekly

“a fresh, thorough and practicable book for anyone who wants to sharpen their macroeconomic judgment, structured in an easily accessible and insightful manner. It offers an invaluable framework to better understand growth, the financial sector and the key trends shaping the global economy.” — Financial Times

Advance Praise for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms:

“A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight … for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics.” — Andre Maciel, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz

“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand … This book helped ground my thinking and understanding of global uncertainties.” — Miki Tsusaka, President, Microsoft Japan

“The authors refreshingly argue that it is misplaced to believe in silver-bullet models. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come.” — Ali Dibadj, CEO, Janus Henderson

“A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk.” — Tom Luddy, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management

“A tour de force! The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive economic risk. And an enjoyable read to boot!” — Colin McGranahan, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

“Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment.” — Frank Brosens, member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder, Taconic Capital

“A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks.” — Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

“A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk… . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics.” — Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada

“A great book … The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful.” — Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office.

Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He coleads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York.

The authors use their ongoing tactical and strategic research to advise executives and investors on macroeconomic risk, and they frequently publish and comment on the macroeconomy in Harvard Business Review, Fortune, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications.