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The Black Swan

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb  

Paperback
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions.
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Paperback

PRODUCT INFORMATION

Summary

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions.

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Description

The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics- it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals that we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

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Critic Reviews

“Great fun 'e”

The most prophetic voice of all GQ Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot Sunday Times It has altered modern thinking The Times Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling Financial Times A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected Guardian

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About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a radical no-nonsense philosopher for our times. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.

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Product Details

Publisher
Penguin Books Ltd
Published
28th February 2008
Pages
480
ISBN
9780141034591
$28.00
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Dispatches in 17-19 days from Auckland
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