The Future of China′s Exchange Rate Policy

Options and Prescriptions

Author: Morris Goldstein Series: Policy Analyses in International Economics

The Future of China′s Exchange Rate Policy

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Presents specific proposals for how China's exchange rate and capital account policies might be modified over the medium term. This book contrasts the features of a "stay the course" policy with those of a bolder "three stage" approach that seeks to reduce more rapidly the current undervaluation of the renminbi.

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Summary

Description

Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007–08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards, averaging less than 2 percent of GDP.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.

About the Author

Morris Goldstein, nonresident senior fellow, has held several senior staff positions at the International Monetary Fund (1970-94), including Deputy Director of its Research Department (1987-94). From 1994 to 2010, he held the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow position at the Peterson Institute. He has written extensively on international economic policy and on international capital markets.