What Are the Odds?

“A timely and refreshing take on a pillar of our democracy—statistics. Mark Prell makes the topic easily understandable through his use of everyday examples. It is the perfect response to those who wonder why it is important to understand statistical methods and findings in our lives. A wonderful primer for anyone who would like to make better decisions and sort through the avalanche of poorly designed studies and misinformation that makes up much of today’s online content.”—Nancy Potok, Former Chief Statistician of the United States“If you work with data, analyze information, or make evidence-based decisions, this book will make you better at doing so. The tools are all here, sure, but I think the big payoff is a sharpened perspective on what statistics are telling us, or not.”—Leidy Klotz, author of Subtract“A terrific way to learn about—or teach—the fundamental, counterintuitive concepts of probability and statistics. Prell grounds his explanations in fascinating real-world examples that show how statistical concepts work—and why they are so often misunderstood.”—Robyn Arianrhod, author of Vector“A masterful introduction to statistics that reveals why we need good-quality data and what can go wrong when we don’t have it. Part story of statistics, part life manual, What Are the Odds? is an inspiring and motivational guide not just to harnessing the power of data but to doing so responsibly.”—Parke Wilde, food economist and Professor at Tufts University“With fresh insights and perspective, Prell helps readers apply statistical thinking to navigate today’s welter of information and data. A persuasive argument that it’s not enough to interrogate statistical methods—we must interrogate the data itself.”—Steve Pierson, Director of Science Policy, American Statistical Association“What Are the Odds? reminds us that good statistics require more than clever models—they require a culture grounded in honesty and mutual respect. Prell makes an unflinching case that such values are not niceties of science but its lifeblood.”—Jing Cao, Professor and Chair, Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern Methodist University, and formerly Chair of the American Statistical Association Committee on Professional Ethics

Mark Prell has authored or coauthored academic articles, book chapters, and government studies in economics, statistical methodology, and data quality. Prior to retirement, he was a senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture. He has served as Co-Chair of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, which advises US statistical agencies, and taught economics and statistics at Johns Hopkins University.