Blindside

How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

Author: Francis Fukuyama Series: American Interest Books

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises —like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired —have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades.

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Summary

Description

As recent history vividly illustrates, several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—but particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Among the most obvious examples are the September 11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina, and the Asian tsunami. Anticipating andmanaging low-probability, high-impact events is a critically important challengeto today’s policymakers but they lack the necessary tools. Developing such capacity and instruments, including the mindset necessary for “thinking the unthinkable,” is the focus of Blindside.

Critic Reviews

“"Fukuyama offers creative thinkingabout the future." - ForeWord Magazine,11/1/2007”

"Fukuyama offers creative thinking about the future." — ForeWord Magazine, 11/1/2007

About the Author

Francis Fukuyama is the Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. Among his many successful books are America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy (Yale, 2007), and The End of History and the Last Man (Free Press, 2nd paperback ed., 2006). He is a member of the executive committee and editorial board chairman of The American Interest.