Predicting Our Climate Future

Readable [and] erudite … a helpful addition to furthering our understanding about matters of probability in our age of a warming planet. * John R. Wennersten, Washington Independent Review of Books *Climate is, in some respects, highly predictable; yet, in other respects, highly unpredictable. But there is no contradiction. The resolution of this seeming paradox in Predicting Our Climate Future leads in turn to a vision for how humankind must respond to this most important problem of all time. * George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001 *A profound yet very accessible guide to climate science, highlighting the significant uncertainties without apology. This book explains clearly why doubt creates a greater and more urgent need to act now to build a better future. * Trevor Maynard, Executive Director of Systemic Risks, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies *The immense complexity of the climate system raises deep questions about what science can usefully say about the future. David Stainforth navigates philosophical and mathematical questions that could hardly be of greater practical importance. He questions what it is reasonable to ask of climate scientists and his conclusions challenge the way in which science should be conducted in the future. * Jim Hall, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risk, University of Oxford *Is the science settled? Are climate models rubbish? Stainforth’s book serves up nuanced answers to big questions in climate science, in an easy conversational style. * Cameron Hepburn, Professor of Environmental Economics, University of Oxford *A thoughtful exploration of the foundations and limitations of climate prediction that explains how its chaotic and probabilistic nature lead to deep uncertainty when assessing climate risk. * Ramalingam Saravanan, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University *Predicting Our Climate Future is an erudite and very personal reflection on climate change, the state of climate science, and their implications for the decisions society needs to take. It should be top of the reading list for scientists, practitioners and anyone who wants to truly comprehend the challenge of climate prediction. * Simon Dietz, Professor of Environmental Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science *A provocative contribution to the literature of climate change. * Kirkus *Predicting Our Climate Future is an ambitious exploration of a critical topic. It is a recommended read for climate scientists, especially those trying to model the future, for the researchers-in many disciplines-that are focused on understanding and forecasting the physical and human impacts of the coming climate changes, and for policy makers engaged in climate issues. * Steven Earle, New York Journal of Books *Intelligent, accessible, well reasoned and working very hard to get it’s teeth into a complex but vitally important issue. * Irish Tech News *Fascinating…[there is a] a refreshing honesty [in Stainforth’s writing] about the limitations we have with certain kinds of prediction. * Brian Clegg, Popular Science *Stainforth is good at explaining the complexities [of climate modelling], leavening the highly technical bits with … lots of relatable real-world analogies. * Geordie Torr, The Geographical *A wonderful book … I think it’s very sobering for those who are certain about everything, and it’s also very clear about the reasons why, in this world of uncertainty, we should act. * Dieter Helm, The best books on Economics and the Environment, Five Books *A journey through the maths of complexity, the physics of climate, philosophical questions regarding the origins of knowledge, and the use of natural science in the economics and policy of climate change. * Michael Svoboda, Yale Climate Connections *Recommended for anyone interested in understanding nuanced aspects of climate change, whether physical, social, or economic, that play a role in the evolution of the climate system. * Choice Reviews *Stainforth uses the tools of mathematics and physics, yet his writing retains a readable style that does require a high-level understanding of these subjects. This book is recommended for anyone interested in understanding nuanced aspects of climate change, whether physical, social, or economic, that play a role in the evolution of the climate system. * Choice *There have been many books about climate change but this one is different from the rest … anyone seriously interested in the future of human society would benefit from reading this book. It is an important one. * Peter Main, Physics Education *I would recommend Predicting our Climate Future to people who plan to work in climate modelling or would like to delve into deep questions of what we know, what we don’t know, and what we can’t know. * Hannah Findley, Royal Meteorological Society *A reminder that we can still take meaningful action to tackle climate change, even without having all the answers. * Matt Crossman, Responsible Investor *For the active intellectual mind, even without a need to dive into detailed mathematics, this book delivers a worthwhile discussion of the uncertainties in climate science … [Stainforth] presents these challenges in a comprehensible manner, followed by an important discussion on why there is an imperative for us to address the problems we are facing in a changing atmosphere. * Sylke Boyd, MPR News *For the active intellectual mind, even without a need to dive into detailed mathematics, this book delivers a worthwhile discussion of the uncertainties in climate science … [Stainforth] presents these challenges in a comprehensible manner, followed by an important discussion on why there is an imperative for us to address the problems we are facing in a changing atmosphere. * Sylke Boyd, MPR News *

David Stainforth studied Physics at Oxford, then worked on ocean modelling and earned a Masters in Environmental Management before working as a renewable energy consultant. He returned to academia to research computer models of the atmosphere, joining Professor Myles Allen to develop the climateprediction.net project. He then became an Associate Professor at Exeter University and later at LSE, researching the philosophy of climate science, climate economics, climate modelling, and climate decision-making under deep uncertainty.