The Art of Uncertainty

”[The Art of Uncertainty] tackles the hazy science of ambiguity and our flailing efforts to come to terms with it. … Perhaps the most important takeaway … is that even in a world of uncertainty, it’s essential for us to retain our sense of personal agency and not surrender to nihilism.” – David A. Shaywitz, Wall Street Journal“Valuable and rare … [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal: how to analyse chance, ignorance and risk. … A welcome corrective for those who think of maths as a black-and-white subject.” – Economist“This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind … rich with stories from fifty years of hard-earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth… . This is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace [uncertainty].” – Hannah Fry, author of Hello World“David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane, and most personal book. I urge you to read it.” – Tim Harford, Financial Times columnist and author of The Data Detective“A stimulating survey of the myriad ways humans have attempted to quantify the unknown. … This is a sure bet.” – Publishers Weekly“A satisfying look at the nature of uncertainty.” – Kirkus Reviews“The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master … all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed forty years ago; I suspect it’ll still be keenly read in forty years’ time.” – Michael Blastland, co-author of The Numbers Game“Brilliant… . A must-read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in.” – Sir Adrian Smith, president of the Royal Society“Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging—without being patronising—introduction to the mathematics of the unknown.” – Tom Whipple, Times (UK)“Timely … David Spiegelhalter is one of the [UK’s] most distinguished statisticians, but he’s also one of academia’s best communicators … [The Art of Uncertainty] impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction, and creative obfuscation.” – John Naughton - Observer“A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations.” – David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle

David Spiegelhalter is emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the author of the best-selling book The Art of Statistics. Knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics, he lives in Cambridge, UK.