Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management

Risk is real—but you can manage it with this hard-hitting guide to reducing risk on any project, in any industry

All projects, large and small, are subject to various risks. But the failure to manage inherent risk with diligence and know-how can lead to devastating consequences for an organization. In this comprehensive hands-on guide, a renowned expert in the field provides everything organizations need to conduct project risk management the right way.

Why do so many projects come in over schedule and over budget? How do projected expenditures and schedules line up with reality? How can you accurately assess risk to mitigate financial disaster? Through a methodical, statistics-based approach, Christian B. Smart reveals:

• The enduring problem of cost and schedule growth
• How rigorous project risk management can reduce the impact of uncertainty
• The systematic tendency to underestimate risk—and how to avoid it
• Ways to accurately assess confidence levels in project risk management
• The need for proper risk management at the portfolio level

The author lays out common problems and explains how to effectively solve them. And while he employs a wealth of illustrative charts, graphs, and statistics, he presents the material in an accessible style, and peppers the text with powerful personal anecdotes.

Ideal for project managers, business analysts, and senior decision makers in both the public and private sectors, Solving for Project Risk Management offers everything you need to ensure your projects run smoothly, on budget, and deliver the expected outcomes.

Christian B. Smart is the Chief Data Scientist with Galorath Federal, a leading international supplier of parametric cost models and data analytics consulting services. He supports NASA and the Department of Defense in the application of analytics for cutting-edge programs, including nuclear propulsion and hypersonic weapon systems. Smart led the development of a quantitative cost risk analysis capability for the NASA/Air Force Cost Model, conducted joint cost and schedule risk analysis for NASA, and participated in the development of a probabilistic risk analysis for the Space Shuttle.

"Christian Smart has written a timely and readable book on a timely andimportant topic. He clearly identifies cost and schedule uncertainties that areintrinsic to program management and, importantly, how to address and managethem. This book should be on every program manager's must-read list" --Daniel Nussbaum, Ph.D., Naval Postgraduate School, author of CostEstimation: Methods and Tools " Once you have realised that risk management is the formalcommunications methodology for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating thethreats and embracing the opportunities within your projects, the next wisestep is to analyse them. There is no better person to explain that analysis andsolve for project risk management than Christian Smart. I would encourage all projectprofessionals to study this book." --Dale Shermon, Qinetiq Fellow, Council Member and Fellow of theAssociation of Cost Engineers (FACostE), author of Association for ProjectManagement Body of Knowledge (7th edition) and editor of Systems CostEngineering "All projects have uncertainties and Solving for ProjectRisk Management provides project managers with the tools needed to identifykey vulnerabilities and take steps to mitigate them before they can jeopardizethe success of the undertaking. The author offers the background andhistory of how risks impact the cost, schedule, and technical success ofventures; how human tendencies cause us to overlook risks and be overconfident;and most importantly, provides workable ways to assess risk, calculateconfidence levels and manage risks in order to enable project success. Thisis the best book on this topic that I have seen--it should be required readingfor all project managers!" --Joseph Hamaker, PhD, Former NASA Senior Executive andSenior Cost Analyst with Galorath Federal Inc.

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