Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era

Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery

Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool.

Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets.

• Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets
• Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality
• Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags
• Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting

The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.

JOHN E. SILVIA is a managing director and the chief economist for Wells Fargo. Previously he worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee.

AZHAR IQBAL is director and econometrician at Wells Fargo Securities.

SARAH WATT HOUSE is vice president of Wells Fargo Securities.

PRAISE FOR ECONOMIC MODELING in the POST GREAT RECESSION ERA "The years since the end of the Great Recession have been an era of disappointing economic performance in which the long-awaited (and long-expected) return to pre-recession trends has been slow to materialize. The authors of this fine new book develop the theme that the Great Recession marks a structural break that has had long-lasting effects on the trend paths of the economy and then explain and demonstrate how to construct useful econometric models that account for this new reality. Highly recommended!" --Rob Roy McGregor, Professor of Economics, Belk College of Business, UNC Charlotte "John, Azhar, and Sarah's book combines a practical examination of an imperfect economy with a focus on current issues of jobs, inflation, and credit markets. The book recognizes structural change in the 21st century economy and does not engage in wishful thinking hoping for a return to a simpler, idealized economic landscape. This is the type of thinking we need in the post-Great Recession era." --Larry Kudlow, The Larry Kudlow Show, Kudlow & Co., LLC "It has been well-documented that nobody has been more right about the economy since the Great Recession began than John Silvia. Anyone who wants to understand what has been going on, model it, or think about how to improve it, needs to read this book." --Kevin Hassett, Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI

PRAISE FOR ECONOMIC MODELING in the POST GREAT RECESSION ERA "The years since the end of the Great Recession have been an era of disappointing economic performance in which the longawaited (and longexpected) return to prerecession trends has been slow to materialize. The authors of this fine new book develop the theme that the Great Recession marks a structural break that has had longlasting effects on the trend paths of the economy and then explain and demonstrate how to construct useful econometric models that account for this new reality. Highly recommended!" Rob Roy McGregor, Professor of Economics, Belk College of Business, UNC Charlotte "John, Azhar, and Sarah's book combines a practical examination of an imperfect economy with a focus on current issues of jobs, inflation, and credit markets. The book recognizes structural change in the 21st century economy and does not engage in wishful thinking hoping for a return to a simpler, idealized economic landscape. This is the type of thinking we need in the post Great Recession era." Larry Kudlow, The Larry Kudlow Show, Kudlow && Co., LLC "It has been welldocumented that nobody has been more right about the economy since the Great Recession began than John Silvia. Anyone who wants to understand what has been going on, model it, or think about how to improve it, needs to read this book." Kevin Hassett, Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI

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