The Dragons and the Snakes

A counterintuitive examination into how, and what, opponents of the West have learned during the last quarter-century of conflict.

Just two decades ago, observers spoke of the US as a "hyperpower"--a nation with more relative power than any empire in history. Yet as early as 1993, CIA director James Woolsey pointed out that although Western powers had "slain a large dragon" by defeating the Soviet Union, they now faced a "bewildering variety of poisonous snakes." In The Dragons and the Snakes, the eminent soldier-scholar David Kilcullen asks how, and what, opponents of the West have learned during the last quarter-century of conflict. Applying a combination of evolutionary theory and detailed field observation, he explains what happened to the "snakes"--non-state threats including terrorists and guerrillas--and the "dragons"--state-based competitors such as Russia and China. He explores how enemies learn under conditions of conflict, and examines how Western dominance over a very particular, narrowly-defined form of warfare since the Cold War has created a fitness landscape that forces adversaries to adapt in ways that present serious new challenges to America and its allies. Within the world's contemporary conflict zones, state and non-state threats have increasingly come to resemble each other, with states adopting non-state techniques and non-state actors now able to access lethal weapon systems once only available to governments. A counterintuitive look at a vastly more complex conflict environment, this book both reshapes our understanding of the West's adversaries and shows how we can respond given the increasing limits on US power.

“"Disturbingly brilliant. David Kilcullen, ever the thoughtful observer of wars and the people who wage them, captures the changes in warfare that already confound-and threaten to overwhelm us. He correctly shows that we are mentally and physically unprepared for the new nature of conflict, and will likely pay dearly for it." -Stan McChrystal, Partner, McChrystal Group "David Kilcullen has produced another thoughtful, important book. At a time when some believe that the return of competition with great powers (i.e. dragons) might serve as an emotional cathartic to help forget the long war against jihadist terrorist organizations (i.e. snakes), the author exposes and transcends that false choice. His ideas about how to fight for peace in a dangerous world should be read and discussed not only by diplomats, defense officials, and military officers, but also by citizens concerned about securing a better future for their children." -H.R. McMaster, author of Dereliction of Duty and the forthcoming Battlegrounds "To absorb Kilcullen's insights is to be forced to rethink national and international security in this new century and to adjust military and nonmilitary institutions to a host of new realities. Senior policy-makers have no choice but to do so."--Gary Hart, Member, United States Senate Armed Services and Intelligence Committees "An eye-opening look at the state of strategic balance between the United States and its rivals, large and small... The author delivers a detailed and unsettling analysis of how America's rivals have adapted to the modern strategic landscape--and how they hope to defeat us. Essential reading for anyone concerned with America's future on the world stage."--Kirkus, Starred Review "This book should be read by everyone in a uniform."--The Times (U.K.) "Kilcullen is a welcome guide, offering a neat summation of how both nation-states and terrorist groups alike learned to cope with America's conventional military primacy... Kilcullen's approach offers readers accessible insights into what are complex and dynamic trends."--Diplomatic Courier "An impressive exposon how terrorists and non-state actors outmanoeuvre conventional militaries... [Kilcullen] has a commanding view of a geopolitical landscape." --Financial Times "Kilcullen argues persuasively that while the United States has been mired down in forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, our current and potential adversaries have gotten the jump on us. His book offers readers a skillfully annotated road map of contemporary conflict, describing in clear, measured prose how and why the days of American strategic and military preeminence are now behind us."--Daily Beast "Kilcullen's The Dragons and the Snakes is a timely invitation for the West to get its strategic house in order with some new thinking."--The Bridge "An incisive work that has deservedly garnered a great deal of attention and is likely to be of enduring importance in debates about the decline of Western power."--RealClearDefense "The Dragons and the Snakes is the best single piece out there-concise, well-written, and nuanced. It is both a timely introduction to the topic for the unfamiliar and a source of new discoveries and insights for the expert; an important book during changing times."--PRISM "Thanks to Kilcullen's serious military experience, access to policymakers, thorough research, and eclectic academic interests, this Australian scholar has become one of the sharpest commentators on modern conflicts."--Foreign Affairs”

"Disturbingly brilliant. David Kilcullen, ever the thoughtful observer of wars and the people who wage them, captures the changes in warfare that already confound-and threaten to overwhelm us. He correctly shows that we are mentally and physically unprepared for the new nature of conflict, and will likely pay dearly for it." -Stan McChrystal, Partner, McChrystal Group

"David Kilcullen has produced another thoughtful, important book. At a time when some believe that the return of competition with great powers (i.e. dragons) might serve as an emotional cathartic to help forget the long war against jihadist terrorist organizations (i.e. snakes), the author exposes and transcends that false choice. His ideas about how to fight for peace in a dangerous world should be read and discussed not only by diplomats, defense officials, and military officers, but also by citizens concerned about securing a better future for their children." -H.R. McMaster, author of Dereliction of Duty and the forthcoming Battlegrounds

"To absorb Kilcullen's insights is to be forced to rethink national and international security in this new century and to adjust military and nonmilitary institutions to a host of new realities. Senior policy-makers have no choice but to do so."--Gary Hart, Member, United States Senate Armed Services and Intelligence Committees

"An eye-opening look at the state of strategic balance between the United States and its rivals, large and small... The author delivers a detailed and unsettling analysis of how America's rivals have adapted to the modern strategic landscape--and how they hope to defeat us. Essential reading for anyone concerned with America's future on the world stage."--Kirkus, Starred Review

"This book should be read by everyone in a uniform."--The Times (U.K.)

"Kilcullen is a welcome guide, offering a neat summation of how both nation-states and terrorist groups alike learned to cope with America's conventional military primacy... Kilcullen's approach offers readers accessible insights into what are complex and dynamic trends."--Diplomatic Courier

"An impressive expos� on how terrorists and non-state actors outmanoeuvre conventional militaries... [Kilcullen] has a commanding view of a geopolitical landscape."
--Financial Times

"Kilcullen argues persuasively that while the United States has been mired down in forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, our current and potential adversaries have gotten the jump on us. His book offers readers a skillfully annotated road map of contemporary conflict, describing in clear, measured prose how and why the days of American strategic and military preeminence are now behind us."--Daily Beast

"Kilcullen's The Dragons and the Snakes is a timely invitation for the West to get its strategic house in order with some new thinking."--The Bridge

"An incisive work that has deservedly garnered a great deal of attention and is likely to be of enduring importance in debates about the decline of Western power."--RealClearDefense

"The Dragons and the Snakes is the best single piece out there-concise, well-written, and nuanced. It is both a timely introduction to the topic for the unfamiliar and a source of new discoveries and insights for the expert; an important book during changing times."--PRISM

"Thanks to Kilcullen's serious military experience, access to policymakers, thorough research, and eclectic academic interests, this Australian scholar has become one of the sharpest commentators on modern conflicts."--Foreign Affairs

David Kilcullen is a Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of New South Wales, and a Professor of Practice in Global Security at Arizona State University. He heads the strategic research firm Cordillera Applications Group. A former soldier and diplomat, he served as a counterinsurgency advisor during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In recent years he has supported aid agencies, non-government organizations, and local communities in conflict and disaster-affected regions, and developed new ways to think about highly networked urban environments. Dr. Kilcullen was named one of the Foreign Policy Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009 and is the author of the highly acclaimed The Accidental Guerrilla, Out of the Mountains, and Blood Year.

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